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Congo is an oil exporting nation with a relatively undiversified economy: crude petroleum makes up 85% of exports and 80% of tax revenue. Therefore, the country’s economic fate is closely tied to fluctuations in oil prices, which have been relatively low for the last few years. Indeed, loss of foreign exchange and other revenue sources was so severe in 2015 that Congo ran a fiscal deficit equal to 24.8% of GDP. However, by 2018, the Central African country managed to record a fiscal surplus of 6.6% of GDP thanks to recovering oil prices as well as reduced public budgets involving policy changes to governance and broader non-oil revenues. This volatility is compounded by Congo’s dependence on trade with China, the US and Europe, which collectively account for over 50% of GDP, suggesting lack of insulation from global developments.

Though total external debt stock is moderate at 44.1% of GDP as of 2018, the Congolese government devotes a high share of revenue for debt servicing. At 11% of government expenditure in 2018, debt service exceeded healthcare expenditure in 2017 by over three-fold, representing a potentially high opportunity cost IF the projects being funded by loans are not helping raise citizen’s standards of living or generating a return. There is therefore potential concern about the country’s debt management and subsequent sustainability.