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数据

img images 埃及

债务历史

从1970年代到1990年代初,埃及政府大量投资于军事采购和培训,以管理与以色列的疏porous边界,从阿拉伯邻国和西方国家大量借贷。这导致债务积累达到1992年的峰值,达到GDP的137%,而1990年代后期的强劲增长导致一段时期的财政盈余,债务与GDP的比率逐渐下降,降至67%到2000年为止。埃及从未成为HPIC的一部分,在此期间,埃及尚未宣布取消中国的债务。

2021年的主要预测

2.8%

经济增长

4.5 / 8

DR的债务透明度指数

112%

公共债务占GDP的比率

-8.1%

预算余额

埃及

Public Debt to GDP Ratio

在过去的十年中,埃及的整体宏观金融表现喜忧参半。自2015年以来,受旅游业,建筑业和石油和天然气的驱动,国内生产总值平均增长4.7%,尽管发生了COVID危机,但该国是北非唯一的经济有望在2020年实现增长的国家。但是,在同一时期,政府一直持续出现两位数的财政赤字,导致其债务存量稳定增加。 2016年,该国实施了经济政策变更,包括减少公共支出,更严格的货币政策以及针对性的社会转移,以取代昂贵的燃料补贴。自政策改革开始以来,财政赤字缩小了5个百分点至7.4%,而公共债务对GDP的比例则从2017年创下的20年高点108%逐渐减少。

The IMF’s assessment of Egypt’s debt sustainability has been moderate in the run-up to the COVID-19 pandemic. It expressed confidence in Egypt’s ability to weather capital outflows on the back of foreign reserves (totalling $44.5 billion) built up following the abandonment of a fixed exchange rate regime. Further, profitable and liquid local banks hold the majority of debt denominated in the domestic currency, reducing the risk of a debt crisis. Due to a relatively low share of external debt at about 40% of GDP, Egypt’s Fitch credit rating has remained stable at ‘B+’ as of mid-2020 – which is below investment grade and highly speculative but suggests an ability to meet current financial commitments assuming no further economic shocks.

埃及

收入与预算余额

报告

Projected debt service to China vs Other creditors

Chinese credit is not a substantial share of Egypt’s debt portfolio, with the money owed to China accounting for 6.1% of total debt stock in late 2019 according to the Central Bank of Egypt. Instead, Egypt’s biggest creditors are multilateral institutions (30.8% of total debt) and the Arab nations (20.5%). Egypt is also the second largest recipient of US military aid, behind that only of Israel.

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中国债务与GDP之比

External Debt Stock to China vs. Other Countries (USD millions)

However, Egypt’s debt vulnerability has increased as a result of the pandemic, with the Jubilee debt campaign predicting a debt crisis in 2020. The public debt to GDP ratio is forecast to rise to 118% in 2020 due to urgent financing needs, surpassing its 2017 peak and reversing the efforts made to rein in public debt before the pandemic. The fiscal deficit, a longstanding challenge facing the Egyptian economy, is also expected to worsen, climbing to 8.7% of GDP. In addition to worsening the balance of payments position, a wider deficit could increase vulnerability by weakening Egypt’s capacity to respond to economic shocks. Meanwhile, Egypt spends significant amounts servicing its growing debt stocks; debt service payments are equivalent to 22% of government expenditure, the third highest rate amongst the countries analysed. For comparison, in 2017, Egypt only spent 5.4% of each expenditure on healthcare, representing a potentially high opportunity cost IF the projects being funded by loans are not helping raise citizen’s standards of living or generating a return.

This report estimates Egypt is only fulfilling 13% of total tax potential, a figure which has been steadily increasing over the past few years but still remains low. To ensure pre-pandemic efforts to plug this gap are not wasted, the IMF has affirmed its support for the continuation of Egypt’s policy changes through SBA financing while the government is strengthening domestic resource mobilization. Assuming global economic recovery and effective policy implementation, the Egyptian economy is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2021.

External Debt

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$98.7bn

Acknowledgements:

WRITERS   Joe Peissel and Yike Fu   GRAPHIC DESIGNER  Kayode Animashaun
and The Development Reimagined Team

Statement on use of data:

This debt guide uses a compilation of data from the IMF World Economic Outlook, the World Bank, the AfDB, Trading Economics, Jubilee Debt Campaign, China Africa Research Initiative for Chinese loans, Christoph Trebesch et al. for China Debt Stock Database, DR’s dataset for debt cancellation and COVID spending, as well as the data from countries’ government websites (if applicable).
Plan

Health and Well being choices

55%

Listening Music

47%

Reading

36%

Gardening

25%

Sleeping

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60%

Watching Tv

19%

Meditation

Protect

People are doing to support their fitness

During the month of January, health and fitness is top of mind for people setting resolutions for a healthy new year. Google searches for fitness peak at the beginning of the year and according to data from the International Health, Racquet, and Sportsclub Association (IHRSA), 10.8 percent of all health club members join their gyms in January.

38 %

Home Workout

9 %

Buy Equipment

7 %

Fitness App
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Work

People plan to do at work when
restictions are lifted

40%

Avoid Handshackes and Hug

31%

Limited time spent in mettings

29%

Plan to work more from home

29%

Limite time in public places

33%

Limit visite to supermarket

30%

Do more Online Shopping

Cases

Covid-19 Cases

It is a long established fact that a reader will be distracted by the readable content of a page when looking at its layout.

COVID-19

Month on Month

Global Corona virus Impact and Implications

COVID-19 cases crossed the 15-million mark globally this week, with South Africa replacing Peru among the top five worst affected countries.

  • US
  • Brazil
  • India
  • Russia
  • 南非
  • Peru
Health

Countries Spend On Their Health Systems

Asia

Africa

America

Europe

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