数据

The IMF and the Jubilee debt campaign predict that the country is at high risk of a debt crisis in 2020. The public debt to GDP ratio is forecast to rise to 80% in 2020 due to pressures on balance of payments, a 40% rise from 2019. According to the IMF, the existence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is a major factor leading to debt vulnerability, with no transparency in terms of access to budget frameworks and financial statements. The government has tried to address this issue through privatization, limiting SOEs’ access to non-concessional loans as well as renegotiating the grace periods and loan maturities associated with some SOE loans. However, Ethiopia dedicates the lowest share of government expenditure to servicing its debt amongst all countries analysed in this report, reflecting the low interest rates and long grace periods it enjoys on its debt.

Furthermore, the Ethiopian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.1% in 2021 according to AfDB’s ‘worst case’ forecast, assuming global economic recovery. This is substantially lower than the country’s pre-pandemic growth track record not just because of potentially prolonged worldwide disruptions, but also because domestically the development strategy seems to be changing based on IMF recommendations. In line with the HERP, the government aims to focus on addressing macroeconomic stability, such as keeping inflation in check as well as promoting debt sustainability, alongside greater private sector involvement. Therefore, growth may be subdued in the medium term as Ethiopia tries to take a more austere approach.