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The IMF considers Djibouti’s debt to be sustainable under the baseline scenario, but with a high risk of debt distress given any further economic shock, as their ability to service debt could be substantially weakened. Similarly, the Jubilee debt campaign predict a debt crisis in 2020. The IMF and Jubilee believe that debt vulnerability has grown because of a too heavy focus on big investment projects in a few sub-sectors at the expense of holistic efforts to improve factor productivity, debt management and domestic resource mobilization. Multilateral organisations believe this is reinforced by structural challenges in governance.

Nevertheless, these large investment projects are a source of growth, albeit vulnerable to external shocks. The small Djiboutian economy is heavily dependent on port operations: the manufacturing and service sectors revolve almost entirely around the port’s activities, accounting for more than 80% of GDP. Over 80% of the port’s operations in turn involves Ethiopian trade: Ethiopia is Djibouti’s largest trading partner, and as a landlocked nation, relies on access to the Port of Djibouti to transport its goods. Djibouti’s foreign exchange earnings are likely to fall due to lower demand for Ethiopian exports in 2020 on the back of weak global demand and supply chain disruptions. As a result, Djibouti’s heavy reliance on foreign exchange creates potential vulnerabilities in servicing its debt.